Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Fabbri  Andrea G.  Chung  Chang-Jo F.  Cendrero  Antonio  Remondo  Juan 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):487-503

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.  相似文献   

中国气候与环境演变评估(I):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势   总被引：26，自引：0，他引：26       下载免费PDF全文

秦大河  丁一汇  苏纪兰  任贾文  王绍武  伍荣生  杨修群  王苏民  刘时银  董光荣  卢琦  黄镇国  杜碧兰  罗勇 《气候变化研究进展》2005,(1)

近百年来,全球气候正经历着一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,全球气候与环境的重大变化对中国的气候与环境演变也产生了重大影响。来自气候、环境、海洋和经济社会科学等领域的百余位专家和学者对中国气候与环境的演变及其对自然生态系统和社会经济部门的影响进行了评估,在此基础上,提出了适应和减缓气候变化的对策。本文主要阐述在全球气候变化背景下中国气候与环境的演变,并对未来气候变化的趋势做出了预测。  相似文献   

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal          下载免费PDF全文

Claudia Carvalho‐Santos  João Pedro Nunes  António T. Monteiro  Lars Hein  João Pradinho Honrado 《水文研究》2016,30(5):720-738

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

地震勘探技术在煤炭勘查中的应用与展望          下载免费PDF全文

许崇宝  王晶  曾爱平 《山东国土资源》2016,32(1)

地震勘探作技术为一种重要的勘探方法,可以经济、有效的发现资源和解决资源开采过程中遇到的构造、地层、岩性等问题。煤炭地震勘探发展过程中地震野外数据采集、地震数据处理和地震解释都取得了重大成就,目前煤炭地震勘探正进一步向高信噪比、高分辨率、高保真度、高清晰度、高精度、定量分析的方向发展,未来也必将在煤炭资源发现和矿井隐蔽致灾因素的探测中发挥重要作用。  相似文献   

军事地理学在未来战争中的发展问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

蔡中祥  刘建忠  谭兴平 《测绘学院学报》2001,(Z1)

论述了未来战争的基本特征 ;以此为出发点 ,研究了军事地理学在未来战争中的地位、作用 ,概括出军事地理的发展特点  相似文献   

山东金刚石原生矿找矿前景探讨   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘继太 《山东国土资源》2002,18(3):100-104

金刚石形成于地幔深处,含金刚石的岩石只是一种运载和保存"工具",凡是来自上地幔的岩石均有可能携带早已形成的金刚石而形成金刚石原生矿床.世界上已知金刚石原生矿除金伯利岩、钾镁煌斑岩型外,尚在橄榄岩、橄榄玄武岩、千枚岩、科马提岩、榴辉岩等岩石中发现了金刚石,可能存在金刚石原生矿新的岩石类型.山东位于华北地台的南东部,鲁西、鲁东基底属A型克拉通,幔源岩浆活动强烈,具备良好的金刚石原生矿成矿地质条件,已获得的大量的成矿信息和找矿线索表明,除已发现的蒙阴金伯利岩型金刚石原生矿外,应该存在着尚未发现的金刚石原生矿,找矿前景广阔,应进一步加强金刚石原生矿勘查工作.  相似文献   

地下流体测项中氟氯离子及水电导的映震效率     

宋德伟  杨从杰  张晓勇 《地震地磁观测与研究》2006,27(6):43-48

展示了数十年来国内外科研机构运用地下流体测项中氟氯离子及水电导的异常特征探索防震减灾的突出成果。在分析了异常特征可能的产生机理后指出:流体测项中氟氯离子及水电导很可能是我们探寻多年的地化敏感元素,该元素抗干扰能力强,映震效果好,测试方便快捷,既经济又可靠。建议各地区结合本地化学、地质构造特征做到扬长避短,在不适合进行水位和水气观测的井泉多开展对氟氯及其他离子元素和水电导的多项目的综合监测研究,做到一井多用,监测有重点,分析有全面。  相似文献   

今天的中国为什么比任何时候都需要世界地理学   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

秦大河  张国友  宋长青  金凤君  薛德升  杜德斌  陆玉麒  苗长虹  葛岳静  吴志峰  刘建忠  张振克  刘云刚  宁越敏  效存德  王荣成  陈俊华  李娟  胡志丁 《世界地理研究》2020,29(1):1-7

世界地理作为中国地理学的重要分支学科，特指研究中国以外区域或国家的地理学科，是中国特有的学科分类现象。中国地理学的这种内外有别的思想对世界地理发展危害甚大，至今都难以消弭。忽视世界地理研究，就会有只见树木、不见森林之虞。为了贯彻落实党的“十九大”精神，繁荣探索新型科研组织机制，打造一流世界地理学科，服务国家重大国际战略需求，来自国内高校、科研院所的百余人齐聚一堂，探讨中国世界地理学科发展之路。与会专家一致认为：地理学是国家发展的法宝，是立国之本。当前世界政治经济格局加速重构，为中国地理学发展带来了前所未有的历史机遇，也赋予地理学特别是世界地理学学科新的重大历史使命。为此，须充分发挥地理学科的优势和特长，紧跟国家和世界发展大势，树立全球眼光，面向国家重大战略需求，把自然与人文结合起来，面向可持续发展，团结国内各相关单位，进行跨学科研究，提升世界地理学科为二级学科，构建具有中国特色的世界地理学理论体系、逻辑框架和学科范式，提升中国地理学科，特别是世界地理学科服务国家和地方发展的能力。  相似文献   

焦家断裂带南延问题及南延段找矿前景分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

崔书学 《山东国土资源》2007,23(10):7-10

焦家断裂带位于龙(口)-莱(州)断裂带的南段,为胶西北地区三大著名的金成矿带之一。焦家断裂带南段因第四系覆盖至寺庄以南去向不明。根据近几年的研究成果,认为焦家断裂带应为龙(口)-莱(州)断裂带南段的高家庄子-紫罗姬家段,特别是南部的徐村院-紫罗姬家段所揭露断裂带应为焦家断裂带在该区的南延并具有较好的找矿前景。  相似文献   

Marine debris review for Latin America and the wider Caribbean region: from the 1970s until now, and where do we go from here?   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ivar do Sul JA  Costa MF 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(8):1087-1104

The available literature on marine debris from Latin America and the Wider Caribbean Region was collected and linked, reviewing their methodologies and principal results (quantities, composition and spatial-temporal patterns). The study region comprises 52 coastal countries of which only 14 had registers of works on marine debris. A total of 70 works were available and 69 had their full contents accessed. Brazil dominated the available literature with 70% of the documents. Beaches were the most studied environment, and plastics the prevalent form of contamination in the whole region. The exposure of marine biota (species, type of contact, consequences) was highlighted. The studied region, although still little exploited by this sort of research, shows the same contamination patterns observed world-wide. We also contacted 40 researchers in the area, collecting scientific contributions, opinions and suggestions for improvement of this research field. Further advances and new (urgently needed) lines of research are also discussed.  相似文献